For years, the collapse of Libya under Muammar Gaddafi puzzled many observers across Africa and the world. How could a country with high living standards, generous state programs, and a strong economy turn so swiftly against a leader who appeared to have delivered materially for his people?
This question is not just about Libya. It speaks to a deeper truth about governance, legitimacy, and the limits of developmental authoritarianism. It speaks to Africa’s political future. And it speaks directly to the crossroads at which Kenya now finds itself.
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The Libyan Paradox: Prosperity Without Liberty
Before the 2011 uprising, Libya’s economic and social indicators were strikingly strong for the region. Gaddafi’s Libya boasted:
Free education
Free healthcare
Subsidized housing
Cheap fuel
High employment
An extensive welfare system
These were not myths. The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) of 2010 ranked Libya 53rd in the world and first in Africa. Even today, that ranking stands out—higher than nations that were far more politically open.
So why did Libyans turn against a leader who seemed to be meeting their material needs?
Because Gaddafi could give them everything except the one thing he feared most: freedom.
He could subsidize fuel, but not free speech.
He could build schools, but not allow independent thought.
He could construct hospitals, but not tolerate dissent.
He could give welfare, but not the right to choose their leaders.
Libya’s experience revealed a truth as old as civilization itself:
A regime can buy time through generosity, but it cannot buy legitimacy without freedom.
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Freedom: A Necessity, Not a Luxury
Freedom is not a decorative political ideal. It is a human necessity—psychological, social, and moral. People do not simply want to live; they want to live freely. When a government controls expression, choice, and political space, the human spirit naturally resists.
This is why even the so-called Asian Tigers—South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore—eventually moved toward greater openness. Their economic success could not be sustained without expanding political participation. Prosperity built on repression is inherently fragile. It lasts only as long as fear lasts.
History offers no example—none—where long-term stability coexisted with long-term authoritarianism.
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Kenya’s Own Crossroads
Kenya today is wrestling with its own version of this tension—between developmental ambition and political openness. We have leaders who speak passionately about transforming the country into a modern, prosperous nation. They talk about infrastructure, investment, and economic reforms.
These are legitimate goals, and every Kenyan wants development.
But the method matters.
Development without democratic space is not development—it is control.
You can tarmac roads and build expressways. You can modernize cities and connect villages. You can construct the most impressive physical infrastructure. But no citizen will trade their political rights for asphalt.
The belief that you can suppress freedoms today so that people will thank you tomorrow for the “development” delivered is a profound misreading of human nature and political history.
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Why the By-Elections Should Concern Us
Recent by-elections have exposed worrying signs: interference in opposition campaigns, misuse of state resources, and pressure on institutions that are supposed to remain neutral. Elections are not a single event that begins at 6 a.m. on voting day and ends when the results are announced.
Elections are a process.
If any part of that process—campaigning, security, media coverage, financing—is manipulated, the final outcome cannot truthfully be called free or fair.
And if the conduct of by-elections is a dress rehearsal for 2027, then the country must pay attention.
A government can secure power, but if that power lacks legitimacy, the nation becomes ungovernable. You can force yourself into office, but you cannot force people into loyalty.
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A Lesson From Libya—and From History
Libya teaches us this:
No amount of economic achievement can replace the need for freedom.
Countries do not collapse because they are poor.
They collapse when they deny their citizens dignity, voice, and agency.
Kenya is not Libya, and Kenyans are not silent spectators. We have fought for our freedoms, sometimes painfully. Those freedoms are not gifts from any leader; they are the inheritance of generations who resisted repression.
Any leadership that seeks to build a “first world nation” must begin with the first principle of nation-building: respect the freedom and will of the people.
Anything less is not development. It is simply decoration on top of insecurity.
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