RUTO SHALL NOT BE THE NEXT KENYA’S PRESIDENT, UNLESS…

In African traditional set-up, if a man brings another woman in your bedroom, and as if that is not enough, enjoys the matrimonial fruit in the same bed, and in the morning the said woman prepares breakfast for the three of you, what are you supposed to do as the first wife?

Truth be told, politics of betrayal are not news in Kenya. Political memoranda are rarely respected and seldom upheld. Politics of dynasties are also a conundrum in our political power affairs.  In Kenya we blame democracy while we cry fall it. President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga’s Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) shall not solve the Kenya’s political equation either, nor shall it bring the much-hyped tranquillity to our motherland for long.

I watched on an eagle’s eye as the Mashujaa Day celebrations unfolded in Kakamega County the other day. Save for Governor Wycliffe Oparanya’s acumen and development tag seen and heard from both directions of the stadium, I was astonished to see the pomp and colour with which the day was marked. Most importantly, even though the state must have pumped a big deal of cash into the event for obvious reasons, I was left agape by the reception that greeted President Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta. Mr Kenyatta was cordially received at Bukhungu Stadium and you could easily tell that the region’s political rivalry on the president has waned. This is not to say that he lacks a political support from the region. His father did not have issues with the region. Moi too. Kibaki also extended the same trend in the region. Individuals from the western part of the country have held fat positions in the country’s governance in each of the last presidents’ regimes. That fact only changed slightly after the 2013 general election. Well, that is not my point. But, President Uhuru now enjoys peace and tranquillity from virtually every part of the country, thanks to Raila Odinga. Raila has delivered the first assignment he was given on the March 9 famous Handshake. President Uhuru is now a happy man, thanks to his wits.

The political reality amid the myths of economic and social legacy of President Uhuru Kenyatta remains a mystery, even to his closest friends and power brokers. Election times in Kenya are political marvels to watch and 2022 stands... I’m almost certain that Ruto doesn’t know what he will wake up to the next day. Since the Handshake, a million things have changed as far as President Uhuru and his deputy are concerned. Well, one thing has remained constant: Ruto’s respect and decorum towards the president. While Ruto’s spanner boys have been seen and heard publicly differing with the president and his lieutenants, Ruto has never. He has accepted all manner of schemes and patterns of his boss. He certainly wouldn’t wish to fall out with his boss. He is loyal and faithful to his job description. While I’m not privy to how much consultation takes place between the two, I’m cock sure that Ruto has only been minding his own business of late while still keeping the president upbeat of his works in the service for the nation. Do not ask me how far the lifestyle audit plans have gone, but I can tell you that is only as serious as it was said. How about the fights against corruption? I have seen the president indulge into the maize farmers owes almost five times in one month as if it was the only evil bedevilling the country. Oh, he also said something small about the sugarcane industry to the Luhya nation. As the Meru’s miraa crop sector nosedive and as they wait to be sensitized on the avocado and macadamia farming, quite a big chunk of the country’s public coffers went to pay about 1000 maize farmers primarily from the Rift Valley. The maize and Ndengu in TNC has no economic value to the farmers. A Kg of maize is retailing at Ksh.15 bob in the region. A farmer in Rift Valley is paid Ksh. 3,600 for a 90Kg bag. Our law professor hasn’t had anything to do with that so far, yet he purports to be the regional leader. Tharaka Sand operators were put into the pocket and that was all.  All the president cares about now is consolidating the country with the help of one Raila Amollo Odinga with two aims:

1. Having peace and tranquillity in the entire country to help him attain the second aim, which is,

2. Retain and share power with Raila Odinga in a post 2022 Kenya in a manner that cannot cause a national public outcry.

William Samoei Ruto is a man not from a royal family. He has rose to where he is today through God, his own efforts, efforts of people like Moi and of course Uhuru, alleged theft of public resources and similar scenarios. Now, while President Uhuru Kenyatta is the Jubilee Party leader and owns much of its material national assets, Ruto is the brains behind its formation. In fact, the least any 2013 ICC suspects sympathiser and 2017 Jubilee Party supporter would expect in Kenya is a fall-out between a Uhuru and a Ruto. You even can’t fathom it!

Do not be cheated, Uhuru is not finishing Raila Odinga, he is killing Ruto’s 2022 presidential ambitions. In fact, a source close to power told me that the Kikuyu Mafia and power brokers are not convinced that Ruto would not firmly represent their interests. The royal coterie are also not convinced over the same. Think about that.

The writers of this article are convinced that President Uhuru and Raila Odinga are up to something serious. First, the BBI should ensure a one united Kenya. Secondly, Raila should deliver a constitutional referendum that provides for the position of a prime minister and two more powerful positions. In a parliamentary system of government, two things would happen. Either have a Ruto presidency that is ceremonial and a Raila premier that is powerful, or a Raila presidency that is ceremonial and a Uhuru premier that is powerful. That way, Ruto would have been completely dealt with. Uhuru is young. Again, he must keep Moi’s word. It is alleged that Moi gave Uhuru a word in 2002, which he must keep by tooth and nail. Apparently, Uhuru feels it is difficult to implement that word presently, partly because of the country’s political situation and partly because Gideon Moi (perhaps who is the word) hasn’t fully braced himself for the country’s top leadership. President Uhuru is a sad man at the moment, perhaps the cause for his recent public outbursts. The Raila factor is a solace to him. Raila is an enigma. While Uhuru too wise for Raila, the former cannot fully fix the latter. Mzee Jomo Kenyatta couldn’t fully fix Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. Raila is crafty and wise. He has survived many turmoils. Raila can craft anything. This reality of Raila's ability to manufacture upheavals, disorganize agreements and benefit from crisis has given Ruto a run for his money.

RUTO HAS ONLY ONE BULLET REMAINING…

To keep respecting his boss until the house comes down crumbling, a situation that would hand him a political sympathy in 2022. Under such circumstances, Ruto would need to identify a team composed of someone from the Coast who cannot be Joho or Mvurya, someone from Meru who cannot be Kiraitu, someone from Western who cannot be Musalia Mudavadi, any serious politician from Central, a Sonko, a Duale, a Mutua, a Khalwale, a host of current first time governors and have a firm grip of the sway regions such as Kirinyaga, Embu, the entire of North and South Rift, Machakos, Narok, Kajiado, Trukana etc. That way, coupled with his charisma, Ruto can forge a formidable campaign team based on a ‘hustler nation’ tag. Such a power house wouldn’t flare a financially colourful national campaign, but just as he did when he together with the church opposed the current constitution and garnered close to three million votes, he could lead his team to victory. If the systems conspire to rig him out, of course he could earn himself power through a government of national unity through defiance, which I think he is also good at. On the opposite, if Ruto continues to attack Raila and the Handshake he will lose terribly. He will soon become irrelevant. That route would beat him. An ordinary Kenyan would rather hate Ruto for opposing the Handshake than love him for being denied a chance to rule Kenya in 2022. Kenyans were tired of politics before the Handshake. Ruto should just welcome it and accept Raila. Anyone opposing a constitutional referendum is an enemy of the people. We should support a referendum whether or not two or three positions are being added, as long as we scrap off the bigger majority of the bloated government. We are spending more than we are producing as a country. Ruto should support the amendments if he means well for the country. We can’t have a ministry of a national government or county government headed by a multiplicity of officers doing the same thing. In 20 years of this constitution Kenya will have to be auctioned, like it happened recently to Greece. This constitution is sinking this country into an abyss we shall never get out. An economic recession is imminent. When in a house we have a committee that cooks, another that serves, another that washes utensils, another that carries utensils etc, then all is not well.

Raila’s welcome by the Kikuyu community the other day during the burial of one artist Kamaru is not different from the reception that Uhuru got in Kakamega during the Mashujaa Day. A union between Raila and Uhuru cannot be defeated, not that easily. We can only guess tomorrow. The Handshake shall be here until 2022. Raila’s recent appointment by the AU is only a shadow. More is coming. Uhuru is yet to give him an office, and that is coming soon. Forget the title ‘Opposition Leader’ that the media is now treating us into, Raila is more than that. Promises, truths and pseudo-truths are yet to come. It is natural for politicians to spin pre-election tales to obscure truth. The electioneering period is punctuated by comedy, outright lies, drama and utter betrayal. That is where we are today, do not be cheated. Raila Odinga has put a far reaching strategy into play. That strategy shall not go well with Ruto. The Uhuru-Raila unity pact could significantly change politics in Kenya again in 2022 and Raila has been rebuilding his ODM party as part of this strategy. This unity shall be the game-changer. Only time will tell. Ruto shall be the utmost culprit, by all means. Whether or not Ruto is a hustler may not help him in 2022 to a very large extent. Definitely, many will tell you that “divide and rule” is an archaic method of getting to power in a modern age but one thing I can tell you, this will have serious impacts on the 2022 politics. Constitutional referendum is also a big factor. My bet is: Ruto will not be the next Kenya’s president!

(The writer of this article is a practising civil engineer and a commentator of political trends in the country.)

KAJIITA MUTEGI DANIEL