The Eagle in a storm

By Strive Masiyiwa
The new year opened with turmoil in the Chinese stock markets as prices fell dramatically, leading to a global selloff. In just one week, global stock markets lost over $2 trillion US dollars! Other news in the global markets saw the price of a barrel of crude oil fall below $35 per barrel, down from a high of $62 per barrel less than 12 months ago. That’s down 50% in 12 months and 71% in 24 months!
Since the beginning of last year, 2015, the price of copper has fallen by 30%; iron ore is down by 42%; platinum has also been a disaster, losing more than half its value from less than three years ago. Agricultural commodities have not fared much better on global markets. Last week the South African rand hit an all-time low of 16:1 against the United States dollar and it’s still falling!
Your small business in Harare, Lagos or Nairobi may not have anything to do with China, or with any commodity like oil, iron ore, or platinum, so you might be asking yourself, “What’s that got to do with me?” Answer: EVERYTHING! It has everything to do with you, and its impact is going to be very personal... Brace yourself, there’s a storm on its way!
You might even be sitting at your desk as a civil servant, or supervising children at school as a teacher, or upholding the law as a policeman; or maybe you’re a pensioner, and you’re also saying to yourself, "I'm not in business; I don't know anything about these things, so what’s it got to do with me?” Answer: EVERYTHING! It has everything to do with you, and its impact is going to be very personal... Brace yourself, there’s a storm on its way!
You look at the sky and see rolling black clouds. The wind is picking up and you say to yourself, “A big storm is on the way.” Even though rain isn’t yet falling, you know the signs of a heavy rain storm and that you must button things down and secure yourself properly. Or maybe you’re one of millions on the continent today suffering another rainless sky, for months on end, putting your fields, crops, livestock, perhaps your whole life at risk...
These are "signs" in weather conditions. Those who are experienced in such things can usually say with a degree of certainty that a storm is coming. However, if you do not understand these matters, or you blissfully decide to ignore them, you’ll suffer a serious drenching or worse.
In business economics we also have signs, and we're seeing these warning signs right now. They're not any different from the black clouds and the wind, or the clear sky and the drought. They're all linked. The stock markets of China and New York may seem far away, and global commodity prices and exchange rates may seem irrelevant to your village, but they’re linked to the real economy in which you live and work!
The next 12 months or more will be very tough, particularly in emerging markets. Many African countries will find it hard going. Consequently, it will be tough for citizens, especially those who are most vulnerable. The weaker your country's economy going into the storm, the tougher it will be. Similarly, the weaker your company or employer, the tougher it will be...
__There is a storm coming.
Now let me tell you about the flight of the eagle. Prophets and Kings of the bible world absolutely loved watching this majestic bird. They believed the eagle is the only bird that flies during a storm. It's developed a flying technique (a skill) they call "mounting" the wind (as though it were climbing a stairway). The eagle has so mastered the storm that it not only flies during storms, but can find opportunities to prosper; it can actually use the storm to its advantage.
Even in these storms, those with the correct mindset will prepare themselves. They will train themselves to understand the times, and learn to prosper in its headwinds… they will mount on wings as eagles!
Yes, it’s going to be very tough, and for some of you, tougher than anything you could have imagined, but you must not be discouraged or wearied. And when you come through it, you will be much better at what you do. Just don't be afraid, and don't panic. In this series I will remind you of some of the things you must do to prosper like the eagle.
This year we must be serious, very serious. Africa expects it of us.
__Changing our "wealth creation model."
Ever since I started school, my teachers taught me that our country was "rich" because we had many minerals, and we'd recite the list of minerals. By the time I finished secondary school, I not only knew my country was "rich," but that Africa itself was "rich" because we had so many natural resources.
Even though I didn't study geology, I could almost tell you where all these precious minerals and other resources were found: oil, diamonds, platinum, gold, copper… in places like Congo, there were names of some things I couldn’t even pronounce.
__Yes, Africa is so rich!!!
As a young student, if I thought about what the global buyers of Africa’s natural resources then did with them, it was only ever a superficial thought. But I soon realized something didn't add up…
__Sometimes it almost seemed that the "richer" a country, the poorer the people! But how could this be?
"1+1=2"! My primary school teacher drummed it into my head, right?
Then I got to secondary school and one day the teacher came in and said, "You know, there are situations when 1+1 does not always add up to 2." ?!
"I'm here to talk about mathematics,” the teacher said. “It's time to put away the arithmetic; this is senior school!"
"Senior school!"
I didn't end my study of mathematics in secondary school. I also studied it at university where I majored in engineering.
What was it the Apostle Paul said about putting away childish things?!
Let me return to the wealth of our nations: I left university in the early 1980's. In those days, it was not China that was rising into an economic giant, it was Japan! It was rising and overtaking every European country, until Japan was second only to America… It was so spectacular!
I first met a Japanese person when I was in my twenties and already working, yet I read every single book I could find about their prowess.
"Tell me about the minerals of your country?" I asked my Japanese friend.
"We have no minerals to talk of," he said emphatically and proudly.
"What do you mean you have no minerals?"
As we talked about the Japanese rise, I was reminded of my lessons in mathematics!
And so I had discovered it was possible for a nation to be "rich" without minerals!
"We buy your minerals as cheaply as we can, and then we turn them into high-value products."
"You mean you exploit us?"
"That's not the way we see it. After all, what would you do with them if we didn’t buy them? Do you know what we do with your platinum or your oil?"
Then he added:
# "Our wealth creation model as a nation is not based on raw materials and minerals."
"WEALTH CREATION MODEL?” What do you mean "WEALTH CREATION MODEL???"
Deeply troubled (even insulted) initially, I knew there was something more to learn if I avoided becoming emotional. The conclusions I reached changed the way I look at wealth, and totally empowered me. It changed my mindset.
The Tentmaker once said that our greatest battle is always in our minds… changing the way see things, particularly if we have held on to a certain perspective for a long time.
I hope it will do the same for you.
See my next post.
To be continued. . .